No Bias in the Baseline Act
- Sponsor
- Rep. Cline, Ben [R-VA-6]
- Committees
- Budget Committee (primary)
- Last action
- Apr 29, 2026
Bottom line
The "No Bias in the Baseline Act" seeks to reform federal budget forecasting by eliminating inflation adjustments and other projections from the baseline, potentially leading to different legislative and fiscal outcomes.
What it actually does
This bill fundamentally alters how the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) calculates the federal budget baseline. It mandates that the baseline be based strictly on current laws and assumes the continuation of current levels of discretionary appropriations, explicitly prohibiting adjustments for inflation or other factors. It also removes certain provisions related to expiring direct spending and receipts and requires the CBO to publish alternative fiscal scenarios.
Proponents argue
Proponents argue that the current baseline methodology, which often assumes automatic inflation adjustments and growth in discretionary spending, creates an artificial bias towards increased spending. They contend that a "current law, current level" baseline provides a more honest and transparent starting point for budget discussions, forcing Congress to explicitly vote on any increases in spending or adjustments for inflation, thereby promoting fiscal discipline and accountability.
Opponents contend
Opponents might argue that removing inflation adjustments from the baseline creates an unrealistic picture of future spending needs, effectively masking real-dollar cuts to programs. They could contend that a baseline that doesn't account for inflation or expected growth in certain programs makes it harder to maintain current service levels and could lead to underfunding essential government functions, potentially forcing difficult choices or creating a false sense of savings.
The bill text is very short and straightforward, allowing for a quick read, but its implications are complex and require deeper understanding.
Section 2(a)(1), amending Section 257(a) of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985.
Redefinition of "Baseline" Calculation
This provision redefines the federal budget "baseline" as a projection based only on current laws and the assumption that discretionary appropriations continue at their current levels. This means the baseline will no longer automatically assume future spending increases for inflation or other factors, presenting a more static view of future government finances.
Supporters argue
Proponents argue this change promotes fiscal responsibility by preventing "phantom savings" from projected spending increases that never materialize. It forces Congress to explicitly authorize any real-dollar increases, making the budget process more transparent and accountable.
Critics contend
Opponents may argue that this redefinition creates an unrealistic baseline that doesn't account for the actual cost of maintaining current services due to inflation, effectively making any spending that keeps pace with inflation appear as an "increase" rather than a maintenance of effort. This could lead to pressure for real cuts to programs.
Tradeoffs
The tension is between a baseline that reflects current policy and economic realities (inflation, population growth) versus one that strictly adheres to current statutory levels to highlight any deviations as explicit policy choices.
Section 2(a)(3)(D), inserting new paragraph (3) in 2 U.S.C. 907(c).
Prohibition on Inflation and Other Adjustments for Discretionary Spending
This provision explicitly states that "No adjustment shall be made for inflation or for any other factor" when calculating the baseline for discretionary appropriations. This reinforces the "current levels" assumption, meaning that the baseline will not automatically grow to account for rising costs over time.
Section 2(a)(2)(B) and (C), striking paragraph (2) and redesignating paragraph (3) as (2) in 2 U.S.C. 907(b).
Simplification of Direct Spending and Receipts Baseline Assumptions
This provision removes the assumption that expiring direct spending and receipts laws are extended for baseline purposes. Instead, it assumes these laws operate "in the manner specified in those laws for each such year," meaning they would expire as scheduled unless explicitly renewed. This changes how future deficits are projected, as expiring programs would no longer be assumed to continue indefinitely.
Section 3, amending Section 202(e)(1) of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974.
Requirement for CBO to Publish Alternative Fiscal Scenarios
This provision mandates that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) include "alternative fiscal scenarios, as deemed appropriate, prepared in consultation with the Committees on the Budget of the House of Representatives and the Senate" in its annual budget outlook report. This allows for projections based on different policy assumptions beyond the new, stricter baseline.