FORECAST Act of 2025
- Sponsor
- Sen. Markey, Edward J. [D-MA]
- Committees
- Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee (primary)
- Last action
- Apr 10, 2025
Bottom line
This bill seeks to modernize NOAA's forecasting infrastructure and cultivate a skilled workforce to improve long-range weather predictions and mitigate impacts from natural disasters.
What it actually does
The FORECAST Act of 2025 aims to enhance the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) weather research and forecasting capabilities, particularly for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. It mandates improvements in data collection, modeling, and operationalization of advanced forecasting technologies, while also establishing a new program to develop and recruit a specialized workforce in weather and Earth system modeling and data assimilation.
Proponents argue
Supporters argue that investing in advanced S2S forecasting is crucial for national security, economic resilience, and public safety, enabling better preparation for extreme weather events and climate-related challenges. They contend that a dedicated workforce development program is essential to ensure NOAA has the expertise to leverage cutting-edge technologies like AI and high-performance computing.
Opponents contend
Critics might argue that while the goals are laudable, the bill's authorized appropriations, particularly "such sums as may be necessary," could lead to unchecked spending without clear fiscal guardrails. Concerns could also be raised about potential duplication of efforts with existing programs or the efficiency of establishing new workforce initiatives rather than bolstering current ones.
The bill is relatively short and its provisions are clearly laid out, making it accessible for an informed reader to understand its core objectives within a reasonable timeframe.
Section 2(a), amending Section 1762(c) of the Food Security Act of 1985.
Enhanced Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Forecasting Functions
This provision expands NOAA's responsibilities for S2S forecasting, which predicts weather patterns weeks to months in advance. It directs NOAA to conduct fundamental research, collect observational data, prioritize multi-model ensemble forecast systems, and accelerate the use of new modeling technologies. It also requires NOAA to link S2S forecasts to potential impacts of natural disasters and create an online clearinghouse for this information, leveraging AI and unmanned systems.
Supporters argue
Supporters argue that enhanced S2S forecasting is critical for mitigating the economic and human costs of extreme weather and climate events, providing decision-makers with crucial lead time for preparation.
Critics contend
No specific opposition is typically raised against improving forecasting capabilities, though some might question the specific allocation of resources or the pace of technological adoption.
Tradeoffs
Balancing the investment in fundamental research with the need for rapid operationalization of new technologies; ensuring data accessibility while maintaining data integrity and security.
Section 2(a), amending Section 1762(j) of the Food Security Act of 1985.
Authorization of Appropriations for S2S Forecasting
This provision authorizes specific funding for the enhanced S2S forecasting activities. It allocates $28,500,000 for each of fiscal years 2026 and 2027 for general S2S activities. Additionally, it authorizes "such sums as may be necessary" for activities related to accelerating the operationalization of emerging modeling technologies, with these funds specifically directed to NOAA's modeling team within the Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC) or institutions of higher education, focusing on high-performance computing, scientific innovation, management, and external engagement.
Section 2(b), adding new Section 415(a) to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017.
Establishment of Weather and Earth System Modeling and Data Assimilation Workforce Innovation Program
This provision establishes a new program within NOAA aimed at developing a specialized workforce for weather and Earth system modeling and data assimilation. The program focuses on education, recruitment, and training for next-generation researchers and practitioners skilled in advanced computing architectures, artificial intelligence, machine learning, unmanned systems, and next-generation data assimilation.
Section 2(b), adding new Section 415(c) to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017.
Human Capital Planning and Funding Authority for Workforce Program
This provision requires NOAA to develop and annually update a human capital plan to identify workforce needs, gaps, and hiring challenges in data assimilation and weather/Earth system modeling. It explicitly allows NOAA to use existing "Pathways" programs for recruitment and authorizes the Under Secretary to use Administration funds and establish agreements with higher education or nonprofit entities to integrate innovative technologies if workforce gaps are identified.
Section 2(b), adding new Section 415(d) to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017.
Updates to Direct Hiring Authority
This provision directs the NOAA Under Secretary, through the Director of the Office of Human Capital Services, to update the eligibility requirements for NOAA's direct hiring authority program. The update will include the newly established Workforce Innovation Program, the Weather Program Office Innovation for Next Generation Scientists Dissertation Fellowship, the Consortium for Advanced Data Assimilation Research and Education, and other relevant fellowship or internship programs, streamlining the hiring of qualified personnel.
Section 2(b), adding new Section 415(g) to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017.
Authorization of Appropriations for Workforce Program
This provision authorizes "such sums as may be necessary" to be appropriated to the Under Secretary to carry out the functions of the Weather and Earth System Modeling and Data Assimilation Workforce Innovation Program. This open-ended authorization allows for flexible funding based on identified needs for the program's education, recruitment, and human capital planning activities.
This section specifies that the "such sums as may be necessary" appropriations for accelerating operationalization of emerging modeling technologies (under 15 U.S.C. 8512(b)(5)) must be used for activities falling under high-performance computing, scientific innovation, management and planning, and external engagement and community, by NOAA's modeling team within EPIC or institutions of higher education.
Section 2(a)(2), amending Section 1762(j)(2) of the Food Security Act of 1985.
Why it matters:This is standard legislative practice to provide more granular direction on how broadly authorized funds should be utilized, ensuring alignment with specific programmatic goals.
Case for: Proponents argue this ensures that the flexible funding is strategically directed towards the most critical areas for advancing S2S modeling, preventing diversion to less impactful activities.
Case against: No specific case against, as this provides more clarity, though some might argue it could limit flexibility if unforeseen needs arise outside these categories.
Estimated impact: Directs potentially significant, albeit unspecified, federal funding towards specific technological and scientific development areas within NOAA and partner institutions.
This provision mandates updates to NOAA's direct hiring authority to specifically include the Weather Program Office Innovation for Next Generation Scientists Dissertation Fellowship and the Consortium for Advanced Data Assimilation Research and Education, alongside the new Workforce Innovation Program and other relevant programs.
Section 2(b)(1), adding new Section 415(d) to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017.
Why it matters:This is standard legislative practice to ensure specific, high-value programs are explicitly covered by broader authorities, rather than leaving it to agency discretion.
Case for: Proponents argue that explicitly including these established and highly relevant fellowship programs ensures that NOAA can efficiently recruit top talent from these proven pipelines, accelerating the integration of new scientific expertise.
Case against: No specific case against, as it streamlines a process for qualified individuals. Some might argue that explicitly naming programs could inadvertently exclude other valuable, but unnamed, programs in the future.
Estimated impact: Streamlines the hiring process for a specific pool of highly qualified individuals, potentially improving NOAA's scientific workforce more rapidly.